Constraint Capital #1 - Jan 2026
Launching the first issue of Constraint Capital covering the foundations of technology strategy within AI Factories, Energy Systems, Embodied AI, Mineral Frontier, and Physical Capital Stack
Constraint Capital seeks to understand companies positioned to capture industrial demand needed now vs those seeking to disrupt by developing along the experience curve. This paid newsletter covers where capital is being applied to deep tech constraints across five industrial mega trends.
In early December as I was preparing for the launch of Constraint Capital, I’ve used my detailed tracking of industrial technology over the last five years to focus on five industrial themes undergoing exponential change: AI Factories, Energy Systems, the Mineral Frontier, the Physical Capital Stack, and Embodied AI. So when I came across a16z’s Big Ideas 2026 I felt validated on the themes, take a listen:
Each month (because you will need at least a month to pull the thread on each topic area), Constraint Capital breakdowns the components within each theme, sourcing the best information about current and future constraints and the companies planning to alleviate them. Throughout we will cover relevant venture funding rounds we are tracking within each subject area. Carta’s head of insights recently provided “some benchmarks for deep tech company fundraising across 900+ rounds raised by US startups in 2025 that are worth reviewing if you’re an operator looking to raise.
Interestingly, the total amount of capital needed for a deep tech startup to make it all the way to IPO is not usually much more than the total capital needed for a software startup. So more dilutive upfront, but not always more capital-intensive.
Expect three to four issues before we hit our stride with Constraint Capital we are still working on some tooling for stock tickers, experience curve charts, and technology infographics before we ramp to full production. Let us know your feedback by replying to this email.
All content published on this newsletter is based on public information and independent research. Opinions are authors own and have been sanitized through AI engines which can make mistakes. This newsletter is not financial advice, and readers should always do their own research before investing in any security.
This week’s digest ⤵️
