Constraint Capital #4.1 - Apr 2026
Constraint Capital Issue #4.1 covers AI Factory energy systems, embodied AI, and moon mass drivers.
We left off Constraint Capital #4.1 discussing the components of AI Factories in critically short supply ⤵️
Since then, multiple folks have commented on the energy costs, correctly placing the chip bottleneck as more acute than the power bottleneck:
Even if energy costs double, a GPU goes from $1.40/hr to $1.50/hr. Nobody notices a dime when the models are improving so fast the value dwarfs the cost.
Even if you don't add more power, but simply add more batteries, you can unlock 20% more of the US's terawatt scale power grid. This is because grid utilities want to make sure they're sized for peak summer load that hits a few hours a year. With enough batteries, you can make this guarantee, even without turning on more power plants!
Fundamentally, there's a lot of different ways to bring power online over the next few years. Building more logic and memory is far more difficult and centralized, so that's where Dylan thinks the bottleneck will be.
@dylan522p on why power isn’t gonna be the big one over the next few years /Dwarkesh on X/
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But terrestrial AI factories aren’t the only data centers needed.
Tell me a little bit about data centers. Do you envision putting them on the moon or in low Earth orbit or higher?
Putting them around Earth, probably around the moon, and then maybe ultimately, around the sun would be incredible. The gravitational pull on the Moon is much less, about a sixth of what it is on Earth, so if we’re building these satellites on the moon with elements and materials from the moon, it would be much faster and cheaper [to launch them].
Read TIME’s Full Interview with SpaceX’s Gwynne Shotwell /TIME/
So we will start at energy systems and explain the bottlenecks along the way to the space economy…